Batten's Best Buy

Batten’s Best Buy Round 11 – Joel Selwood

As SuperCoaches, we are faced with many tough decisions on a week-to-week basis. Dan will aim to outline the ‘best buy’ of the Round in terms of price, overall output and/or cash generation for the rest of the season.

 

We hit a slight speed bump last week with Toddy Goldstein getting absolutely pantsed by Matthew Kreuzer. He still managed to pump out a score of 91, so it could have been worse. Other suggested players in JPK (average of 111 since nominated) and Heeney (average of 96) have fared well.

Next up is the Cats skipper, Joel Selwood

Price: $547,400
Current average: 112.5 (10 games)
2016 average: 111.5
Predicted average from here on: 110-115
Bye: Round 12
Breakeven: 62

Selwood has been one of the hottest names about the SuperCoach landscape this week.

However, this has been predominately for the Selwood of the Scooter variety, with 13% of SuperCoaches trading in the former Eagle.

In my eyes, there is only one Selwood who should be on our radars, and that is Joel.

As we know, Joel Selwood has been a SuperCoach stalwart for about the past decade. He has averaged over 104 points every season since the dawn of time (2008, his second season where he averaged 98.2) and goes out with that same willingness to drag his team over the line every week.

In fact, across the past nine years he has eclipsed a 110+ SuperCoach average in all but one season (2015, 104.5) – including four years above 115.

He started the season a little scrappy by his lofty standards but has hit his straps over the past fortnight, registering scores of 134 and 126 at his favourite place on Earth, Simonds Stadium. After ten games, the Cats skipper is going at 112.5 points per game, sitting at a lowly $547k.

I’ll let you in on a little secret, folks.

Selwood started last year pretty slowly as well, scoring just the six tons in his first ten games. The star then went on to raise the bat seven weeks in a row, including five 125+ totals.

From Round 10 onwards in 2016, Selwood scored 116 points per game. Take note.

On the back of the past fortnight, I can see Selwood replicating something similar for the remainder of 2017.

As I already mentioned, Selwood’s second home is Kardinia Park – where he averages 116 points across his 71 games – and Geelong play another five games at the Cattery, including tonight. When you consider he has scores of 128 and 142 in his past two games against the Crows at Simonds Stadium, getting him this week looks to be the logical option.

Another positive for Selwood is Dangerfield’s return to form, or more correctly, his recovery from his back injury. Dangerwood looks to be back in full force after three weeks of poor scores from the two from Rounds 6-8 (and coincidentally, three Geelong losses) which means Selwood is less likely to be tagged. Teams generally opt to lock down on Danger over Selwood.

Like Dangerfield, Selwood has a knack for performing when the game is on the line, picking up plenty of ‘inflated’ points due to scaling. Selwood has done this over the past two weeks, as well as against St Kilda, Melbourne and North Melbourne this season – eclipsing 120 points in all of these games.

In a rather obscure stat, from 2015-17 Selwood has averaged 38 points in last quarters where the match has been decided by under 12 points. With the Cats likely to get into more close tussles, this bodes well for his scoring potential.

Many of us are looking to complete our midfields over the byes, and Selwood at $547k – almost $60k below his starting price – is bargain basement stuff.

Jake Barrett and Sam Petrevski-Seton both have their bye this week, presenting an opportunity for owners to upgrade them to the experienced campaigner.

I unfortunately traded out Powell-Pepper for Selwood last night and for those that did the same, don’t fret. Selwood’s score tonight should beat Powell-Pepper’s 88. Should.

Some may question why you would trade Selwood a week before his bye. Here are the two major reasons:

  1. Another 130 will see Selwood’s price reach rise another $30k or so
  2. Most people are faring OK for the Round 12 bye. Round 11 and 13 however, is another story…

Oh and thirdly, an upgrade to Selwood means another premium midfielder on ground, which could make the world of difference in what will be a fairly low scoring week.

There is no better opportunity to jump on the Geelong star than while he is under $550k with a breakeven of 62. In just 8.8% of teams, he will prove to be a great point of difference selection for the rest of the season.

He won’t let you down.

Don’t hesitate to ask me a question on Twitter @battenball96!

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